Shaun
As leaders of the world economies gather at a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies for the G7 Summit, all eyes are on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Hosting the high-stakes summit for the first time, Carney faces a complex diplomatic balancing act amid rising geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown, and strained relations with key players.
Originally billed as a forum to promote economic resilience and global security, the summit’s focus has now abruptly shifted: the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has vaulted to the top of the agenda, overshadowing Carney’s planned priorities.
The summit was expected to be a defining moment for Carney’s global leadership ambitions—demonstrating Canada’s ability to steer international cooperation, reduce dependence on the US, and emerge as a leading G7 economy. However, the volatile situation in the Middle East now poses a key diplomatic challenge.
John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto, said Carney will be closely watched for how he handles US President Donald Trump, who has frequently undermined Canada’s sovereignty.
Trade wars and Trump
This is President Trump’s second visit to Canada for a G7 Summit —the first being the 2018 Charlevoix gathering, which ended in resentment. That summit was marked by Trump’s abrupt exit and public criticism of then-PM Justin Trudeau over tariffs and trade.
Trump continues to pursue a combative trade agenda, using tariffs as leverage to rebalance US trade relationships. “The US has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” the president said previously.
With Trump now back in office after his 2024 re-election, Carney faces a delicate task: securing Canadian interests while managing a volatile relationship with the US.
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He has already scheduled a one-on-one meeting with Trump on the summit’s opening day.
Avoiding another 2018-style breakdown
Carney appears keen to avoid a repeat of the 2018 breakdown. He told Sky News last month that the key lesson from Charlevoix was to be “consistent—say the same thing in private as you do in public, say the same things after the summit as you do during the summit.”
This year, Canada has decided not to issue a final communique. Instead, the summit will produce six short joint statements on targeted topics including wildfires, critical minerals, and security—an approach meant to minimise disagreement and diplomatic fallout.
A senior Canadian government official noted, “The G7 is a consensus body. We work together.”
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Tackling wildfires, critical minerals, and AI
Despite disruptions, Canada is pushing forward with key focus areas. These include climate-related threats such as wildfires, strengthening global supply chains for critical minerals, and harnessing the power of artificial intelligence for peace and economic growth.
The wildfire agenda is particularly relevant. Canada experienced its worst fire season on record in 2023, and this year could become the second worst. Smoke has already affected parts of North America and Europe.
AI and critical minerals are also strategic areas where Carney seeks alignment among G7 nations, amid intensifying global competition with China.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is attending the summit and will push for expanded sanctions on Russia, continued military support, and financial backing for reconstruction.
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Carney has also made foreign interference —especially in diaspora communities— a top agenda item.
Mexico’s newly-elected President Claudia Sheinbaum will also attend and is expected to meet Trump for the first time. Trade relations between the two countries have been reshaped by the Trump administration’s tariff strategy.
Leaders from the European Union, NATO, Australia, South Africa, South Korea, Indonesia, and Brazil are also expected to be present.
