The next Asia Cup, a key biennial event that is very lucrative for the Asian Cricket Council (ACC), will likely take place in the United Arab Emirates. Even though the ACC has reasons to believe so, the future of the competition is uncertain owing to heightening political tensions between arch-rivals India and Pakistan.

The situation became more precarious after a fatal shooting of tourists in Kashmir in April, which almost led to all-out war between the two nuclear powers. Although a ceasefire has now been announced, the diplomatic tension still affects bilateral and multilateral cricketing relationships, with particular regard to the sport’s tremendous popularity both countries enjoy.

India’s history shows that its participation in matches against Pakistan depends on official sanction by the Indian government. Current media reports indicate that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) will pull out of the Asia Cup on political grounds to isolate Pakistan’s cricketing machinery. The Indian Express went as far as to report that this is part of a larger geopolitical game. But BCCI secretary Devajit Saikia has downplayed such talk, and the ACC remains optimistic that the tournament will go ahead as planned.

Throwing another wrinkle into the equation, ACC chairman Mohsin Naqvi, who is also the interior minister of Pakistan as well as the president of the Pakistan Cricket Board, has joined the fray by assuming charge from incumbent International Cricket Council (ICC) President Jay Shah. Diplomatic spadework continuing, ICC’s Annual General Meeting in Singapore later this month could prove to be critical in deciding whether the event proceeds. While India is the officially designated host, the UAE will probably host the tournament in reality, with Sri Lanka also being considered for a short while.

In the middle of all this political brinkmanship, Team India’s entry into the tournament is still in doubt. Sources indicate that the BCCI is considering various factors such as player security, diplomatic relations, and public opinion. If India formally withdraws, the whole Asia Cup may be put on the backburner because India-Pakistan games are the event’s economic bread and butter. The loss would hurt cricketing countries throughout Asia as many of them depend on ACC grants that are largely funded by broadcast money attached to this celebrity-led contest.

The economic stakes are high. The media rights of the Asia Cup are said to be valued at $170 million, a sum shared among the ACC’s 27 member nations. Based in Kuala Lumpur since its inception in 1983, the ACC heavily bankrolls this tournament to market and grow cricket in the region. In an interview, former ACC commercial and events chief Prabhakaran Thanraj explained that the revenue model remains highly reliant on the India-Pakistan matchup, referring to it as “the engine of the ACC’s monetization plan.”.

The 2023 Asia Cup was held in Pakistan under a hybrid system, with India’s games relocated to Sri Lanka. The same model was applied in the recent Champions Trophy, when India’s matches were hosted in the UAE, though Pakistan was hosting.

India now owns the Asia Cup title, and the 2025 edition is lined up as a T20 competition, acting as a vital build-up to next year’s co-hosted T20 World Cup by India and Sri Lanka. But unless diplomatic tensions are reduced soon, the biggest cricket spectacle of the region could be in serious danger of being cancelled.