IPL 2025 playoffs qualification scenarios: Can Mi top table despite losing to GT?

Mumbai Indians’ six-match unbeaten run came to a heartbreaking end on Tuesday, 6 May, when they lost to Gujarat Titans in a high-voltage IPL 2025 clash at Wankhede Stadium. MI needed to defend 15 runs in the final over, but an apparent tactical blunder – handing the ball to Deepak Chahar instead of bowling himself – cost Hardik Pandya’s men two crucial points. MI also suffered a rare batting failure, managing to post just 155 runs in their quota of 20 overs.

Despite the defeat, Mumbai Indians remain in the top four, with their play-off fate still in their own hands. They will be assured of a spot in the play-offs if they win their next two matches. IPL 2025. MI vs GT: Highlights

However, if they lose one, things get tricky. Mumbai Indians cannot qualify if they lose both matches, as these fixtures are against direct competitors.

Before we take a look at the three scenarios, here’s how the IPL 2025 points table stands after their defeat to Gujarat Titans.

MI’s remaining fixtures

vs Punjab Kings in Dharamsala on May 11.

vs Delhi Capitals in Mumbai on May 15.

Scenario 1: MI Wins Both (Finishes at 18 points)

• Beats PBKS on May 11
• Beats DC on May 15

Here’s how MI can finish in the top two with 18 points.

• GT with 16 points now must finish at 18 or less by losing at least 1 of their next 3 matches
• RCB also with 16 points must finish at 18 or less by losing at least 1 of their next 3 matches
• PBKS with 15 points now must lose at least 1 more match apart from the game against MI, so they cannot go beyond 17
• DC with 13 points can get to a maximum of 19, but MI beating them keeps DC at a maximum of 17
• KKR with 11 points can only get to a maximum of 17 points
• LSG with 10 points cannot go past 16 points
• So with 18 points, MI can finish Top 2 if RCB and GT do not both reach 20 and PBKS does not win all 3 remaining matches.

Scenario 2: MI Wins 1, Loses 1 (Finishes at 16 points)

• Beats either PBKS or DC.

MI ends with 16 points and a good NRR.

• Their Net Run Rate will still remain strong
• GT and RCB can go beyond 16, that is fine, they may finish above
• PBKS with 15 points can reach 21 if they win all 3, ideally they do not, if PBKS finishes at 17, MI can still qualify if ahead of DC, KKR, and LSG
• DC with 13 points can go up to 17 even if they lose to MI, so MI needs DC to slip elsewhere
• KKR with 11 points can reach a maximum of 17, MI is safe if KKR does not win all 3
• LSG with 10 points can get to 16, but their NRR is weak at minus 0 point 469, so MI is favoured in case of a tie
• MI is likely safe at 16 points, mainly due to their strong NRR

Scenario 3: MI Loses Both (Stuck at 14 points)

• Loses to PBKS, which then goes to 17 points
• Loses to DC, which then goes to 15 points

MI stays at 14 points and it’s game over as they now can’t qualify with 14 points.