In the wake of a diplomatic standoff with India and growing internal unrest, Pakistan halted the contentious Cholistan canal project Thursday, a day after India unilaterally decided to hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance.

The treaty signed between in 1960 has endured two wars, and acted as a peace mechanism between the neighbours.

However, even before India’s announcement, the sharing of waters was at the centre of domestic disputes in Pakistan.

The Cholistan project involves construction of six canals—two each in Pakistan’s Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan—to irrigate millions of acres of desert land. Five of the canals will draw from the Indus River, while the sixth will use the Sutlej River, which is primarily controlled by India under the IWT.

The project, under the Green Pakistan Initiative, is backed by the Pakistan army and was launched by Army Chief General Asim Munir and Maryam Nawaz, chief minister of Pakistan’s Punjab province, in February. It aims to irrigate southern Punjab’s Cholistan region.

The launch of the project sparked outrage and protests, particularly in Sindh, a lower riparian province facing chronic water shortages. The Sindh assembly passed a resolution in March, and leaders of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) joined protests, warning of disastrous consequences.

With India’s attempts to alter the IWT and surging domestic tensions, Pakistan now faces a dual crisis—external hostility and internal fragmentation.

Pakistan’s Domestic Concerns Sindh fears that the new canals would violate the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord in Pakistan, which guarantees equitable water distribution among its provinces. Sindh is estimated to face a 40-45 percent annual water shortage, exacerbated by upstream diversions and the federal government’s alleged failure to enforce water rights.

Sindh leaders have argued that Punjab’s unilateral canal construction undermines federalism and threatens the livelihoods of millions in the Indus River Delta.

Following India’s decision to hold IWT in abeyance, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and chairman of ruling coalition ally PPP Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari Thursday announced that no further work would be done on the canals projects until a consensus was reached on the issue at the Council of Common Interests (CCI) meeting on 2 May, Dawn reported.

Bilawal welcomed the move as a win for provincial rights, but opposition parties in Pakistan dismissed the announcement as a political manoeuvre.

Conflicting claims about the canals’ water sources have added to the confusion. The government has argued that the project will channel surplus monsoon floodwater from the Sutlej River. Critics, however, remain skeptical, citing the 1991 accord, which Sindh argues already allocates 23 percent less water to it.

The IWT led to domestic rivalries, with Pakistan ceding control of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej Rivers to India. The 1991 water accord sought to balance allocations on the mean annual flow (MAF)—the average yearly flow of water through a river or stream, crucial for managing reservoirs, water supply and resources.

Under it, Punjab receives 55.94 MAF, Sindh 48.76 MAF, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 5.78 MAF (plus 3 MAF from ungauged canals) and Balochistan 3.87 MAF. However, uneven implementation persists, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa lacking infrastructure to fully utilise its share, and Sindh accusing Punjab of over-extracting water, leading to barren fields and the encroachment of saltwater in the Indus Delta.

The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) and the CCI were set up in 1992 to mediate such disputes, and Article 155 of Pakistan’s Constitution mandates formal resolution of interprovincial conflicts.

Pakistan’s vulnerability

Tensions over the Indus River’s waters date back to pre-Partition, with disputes among Punjab, Sindh, Bahawalpur and Bikaner during British colonial rule.

After Partition, these conflicts evolved, leading to the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. Under the treaty, India controls the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Ravi and Beas—while Pakistan manages the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

According to Pakistan’s plan, one of the new canals will be fed by excess floodwaters from the Sutlej. As Pakistan increasingly depends on the shared waters for food and water security, its vulnerabilities are mounting.

A 2021 UN Food and Agriculture Organization report highlights that the country saves just 10 percent of its river water compared to the global average of 40 percent. It also withdraws nearly 75 percent of its renewable water resources—making it one of the most water-stressed countries in the world.

As India expands upstream infrastructure and climate change disrupts river flows, Pakistan’s reliance on the Indus system is becoming increasingly critical.