Gaza Cease-Fire Negotiators Meet Amid Threat of Wider Conflict

There was no immediate breakthrough on Thursday, but no breakdown in the talks either.An Israeli official briefed on the negotiations said that the Israeli delegation would remain overnight in Doha, Qatar’s capital, and that the talks were expected to continue on Friday in an attempt to bring the sides closer.

A White House national security spokesman, John F. Kirby, called the talks a “promising start” and said the United States also expected them to go on for a second day.

A Hamas political official, Hussam Badran, put out a statement restating the group’s long-held positions that any agreement must include a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent cease-fire.

International pressure has been rising for months for some kind of deal to end the suffering in Gaza and allow for the release of hostages. The Gazan Health Ministry reported on Thursday that the Palestinian death toll in the war had surpassed 40,000. The ministry’s figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians. Israel’s military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said on Thursday that Israeli forces had killed more than 17,000 combatants.

But prospects for a breakthrough still appear remote, leaving the Middle East facing a precarious moment. The United States has sent stealth fighter jets, a carrier group and a guided-missile submarine to the region in anticipation of an Iranian-led attack.

The issues still unresolved include who will control the Gazan side of the enclave’s border with Egypt and how Israel can prevent armed Hamas fighters from returning to northern Gaza, which has been largely depopulated during the war.

Hamas officials have said Mr. Netanyahu’s government is not genuinely interested in reaching a cease-fire, pointing to the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh in Tehran and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s toughened stands on several points. “Hamas believes the Israeli occupation is trying to buy time with more negotiations,” said Ibrahim al-Madhoun, an Istanbul-based analyst close to Hamas.

In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies continue to insist that Israel rule Gaza indefinitely and have already denounced the latest Israeli proposal as tantamount to surrender. If Mr. Netanyahu moves ahead with the deal, his governing coalition could splinter, potentially ending his political career.

Mr. Netanyahu himself has equivocated, saying he supports the three-stage proposal even as he promises the Israeli public an “absolute victory” over Hamas. Relatives of hostages held in Gaza have argued that the prime minister has prioritized his hold on power over signing a deal to free their loved ones.

Yaron Blum, a former Israeli security official who previously led the country’s effort to bring home hostages, said that even if the current talks were successful, they would be just the start of a protracted process of hashing out the details of a deal. But if the talks go poorly, the region could descend into a wider confrontation, he said.

“If everyone doesn’t work in the coming days until white smoke comes out, I don’t see it coming together going forward,” said Mr. Blum. “But there’s still a chance now, because every side realizes that they need to advance.”

Mr. Kirby said the American delegation was led by the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, and President Biden’s Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk. Israel’s delegation is being led by the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea. The other principals in the talks are the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, and Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani.

The stakes at the talks are particularly high for the families of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. Over 40 of the 115 hostages are now presumed dead, according to the Israeli authorities.

“Every second there are hostages held in captivity is a severe risk to their lives,” said Jon Polin, the father of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, one of eight Israeli-American hostages. Three of them have been declared dead by the Israeli authorities.

In Gaza, most of the enclave’s more than two million people have been displaced, many repeatedly, and are living in tents or temporary lodgings. Finding enough food and safe drinking water is often a daily struggle, and swaths of the coastal enclave have been reduced to rubble.

Anas al-Tayeb, who lives in Jabaliya, just outside of Gaza City, said many there rejoiced in July, the last time mediators said cease-fire talks were progressing. But just a few days later, the Israeli military again stormed neighborhoods in Gaza City.

Mr. al-Tayeb said Israel and Hamas were both responsible for the failure to reach a deal. He wondered why Hamas had declined to accept any of the previous Israeli cease-fire proposals, which have broadly adhered to the three-stage framework.

“Those same conditions were offered before in previous rounds of negotiations,” said Mr. al-Tayeb. “So why didn’t they take it then?”

Rachel Goldberg-Polin, Hersh’s mother, said she believed it was time for everyone to agree to a “true compromise.”

“Not everyone is going to agree,” she said. “But everyone has interests and everyone gets a little bit of the interests they’re looking for. Let’s make that happen and move forward.”