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The Future of Quantum Computing: Predictions for 2024 and Beyond

The Future of Quantum Computing: Predictions for 2024 and Beyond

Read Time:10 Minute, 57 Second

Fiber optic cable as a replacement for quantum computers

The year 2023 began with many business leaders caught off guard by the mainstream adoption of generative AI . Now that we’re thinking about what trends await us in 2024, it’s quantum computing that’s increasingly igniting the spirit of technology in companies around the world.

Critics have often dismissed quantum computing as overrated. But now that it’s about to take center stage, all eyes will be on whether it can deliver on the promise of a seismic shift in computing power.

Key insights

  • After artificial intelligence, quantum computing could be the next change we see globally as engineers focus on the quality of qubits and error correction.
  • Data security is a pressing concern as quantum computing threatens existing encryption standards.
  • Sectors such as finance, pharmaceuticals, sustainability and regulated industries are exploring the potential impact of quantum computing on their respective fields.

The transformative potential of quantum computing comes with ethical and security challenges that require a balanced and informed approach from companies and especially from authorities.

Quantum computing is expected to transition from physical qubits to error-corrected logical qubits in 2024, and global collaboration in quantum research will increase – an important year for the technology.

Atom Computing’s recent announcement that it will build a quantum computer with 1,225 qubits , nearly triple the size of IBM’s previous flagship Osprey , underscores that we are on the cusp of a new era of computing. This leap reinforces the potential of quantum computing to revolutionize sectors such as pharmaceuticals and cybersecurity and enable calculations of unimaginable complexity.

However, there is a growing belief that the quality of the qubits will be the deciding factor for quantum computing and not the mere quantity.

So let’s address the question: Does quantum computing have a future?

Quality of qubits over quantity

John Prisco believes that the quantum computing market will change in 2024, moving away from the obsession with the concepts of quantum advantage and the number of raw qubits. Instead, the industry will focus on the more critical issue of error correction and practical problem-solving applications.

“Quantum computing giants are expected to focus their efforts on the logical qubit count, prioritizing the quality of qubits over the sheer quantity that has dominated discussions so far.”

Unfortunately, 2024 may not bring decisive consolidation of quantum computer design modalities, but this uncertainty poses a challenge to the industry’s overall development and focus.

“The quantum computing market is on the verge of losing one of the current modalities, meaning no development focus will be achieved in 2024 – a bad sign as the industry looks to transition from headline-grabbing achievements to tangible real-world impact.”

The shift from a pure numbers game to an emphasis on error correction and functional applications represents a maturation of the field. Although this transition is fraught with uncertainty, it represents a critical point.

“As the industry grapples with translating theoretical capabilities into real-world applications, another issue arises: the implications of quantum computing for data security, particularly how hackers might exploit this new technology to store encrypted data today and access it tomorrow decipher.”

Hackers will store data to decrypt later

Dashlane CTO Fred Rivain offers a timely warning about the speed at which quantum technology is advancing and suggests that the need for quantum-resistant encryption methods is no longer optional.

The looming threat of a quantum computer breaking current encryption standards such as RSA or ECC encryption algorithms highlights the need for companies of all sizes and industries to assess where they are at risk and move to post-quantum cryptography today.

“The risk to institutions and companies is real: hackers and rogue states are likely already trying to steal, hoard and store encrypted data in the hope that they can crack it in the future.”

We expect NIST to announce “Round 4” of standardized post-quantum algorithms next year, which will be integrated into major cryptographic libraries like libsodium for all developers to use. While pioneers like Cloudflare and Signal have started putting it into practice, wider adoption remains a long-term prospect. Motivating change may require a Y2K-like event, despite the White House’s urging.

Rebecca Krauthammer, co-founder and chief product officer at QuSecure, also warns that the threat landscape will continue to evolve as quantum computing advances.

“With advances in quantum computing and AI-driven attacks, a new breed of cyber threats will emerge. Cybersecurity teams will be tasked with defending against not only traditional malware and security breaches, but also quantum-focused store-now-decrypt-later attacks, adversarial machine learning tactics, and AI-driven social engineering methods.”

This requires a broader range of skills for cybersecurity professionals and more advanced defense tools and platforms.

Misconceptions about quantum computers

There are many misconceptions about quantum computers. Quantinuum President & Chief Operating Officer Tony Uttley pointed out that quantum computers won’t be available for another 10 or 15 years.

“We already have quantum computers that can do things that classical computers cannot. Another misconception is that quantum computers will only be good for one thing.”

Uttley explained that while the focus of quantum computing development has been primarily on business applications, the technology has inadvertently become a game changer for complex scientific challenges. For example, problems in condensed matter physics and high energy physics, which often fall under the purview of organizations such as CERN and projects such as the Large Hadron Collider, can now be addressed in ways previously thought impossible.

“Human history has taught us that if you give brilliant people incredible tools, they will find something to do with them. We see this happening in real time.”

Essentially, quantum computing has become a transformative tool, making theoretical concepts tangible and giving us a new lens through which to understand the universe.

“I look forward to dispelling the myth that quantum computing is still a decade away and that there is only one solution to one thing.”

Which sectors will quantum computing impact?

Financial service providers, major banks and trading companies use quantum capacities to optimize portfolios and improve fraud detection. The pharmaceutical sector is eyeing quantum computers for efficient drug discovery. At the same time, companies focused on sustainability are exploring new materials science, as shown by BMW and Airbus’ work on hydrogen fuel cells.

“Quantum computing also promises to revolutionize regulated industries from healthcare to aviation by creating much-needed transparency and traceability in AI algorithms, alleviating the ‘black box’ problem in AI decisions.”

However, the risks are just as great as the benefits. A major problem is data encryption, as algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm have shown that quantum computers can potentially crack existing encryption methods. This leads not only to technical challenges, but also to ethical considerations about how the technology should be used for the public good and ensuring safety.

What is the future of quantum computing?

Quantum computing is not a futuristic concept, but a current reality with crucial milestones on the near horizon. An immediate milestone is reaching a level at which quantum computers routinely outperform even the world’s most advanced supercomputers in simulation tasks, entering an era in which classical computing is no longer able to emulate the capabilities of quantum.

Tony Uttley, president and chief operating officer of Quantinuum, advises business and government leaders to focus on the burgeoning applications of quantum technology in areas such as cybersecurity and high-energy physics.

“We will see how it is used in areas that impact our daily lives. We may never touch a quantum computer ourselves, but it could be that an application you are working on on your phone reaches out to the entire world and does something from a quantum computer.”

Much like the early days of the Internet and classical computing, quantum computing will begin with niche applications, but it is poised to become ubiquitous and subtly take over tasks on our everyday devices like cell phones.

Challenges in a quantum computing future

On the one hand, quantum computing opens up groundbreaking research opportunities in areas such as medicine, materials science and cryptography, acting as a catalyst for innovation and pushing the boundaries of what we think is computationally possible. On the other hand, the disruptive potential of this technology raises critical questions about data security, ethical implementation and the emergence of a digital divide.

“As quantum capabilities grow, we face an imperative to invest in error correction mechanisms and focus on the quality of the qubits rather than mere numerical superiority.”

Ignoring these subtleties could lead to a precarious future in which the power of quantum computing is either underutilized or misused. Therefore, the path ahead requires a calculated, ethical and multidisciplinary approach that combines technological prowess and regulatory foresight.

“Quantum computing could disrupt current encryption models and require a complete overhaul of cybersecurity protocols.”

Furthermore, the technology is still in its infancy and struggles with issues such as qubit stability and error correction, while also presenting a high barrier to entry in terms of cost. As we head into 2024, those responsible in companies must weigh the transformative potential against the existential risks and operational challenges of quantum computing.

As we move from the era of classical computing to a quantum future, business leaders and policymakers must proceed with a balanced and informed strategy, balancing the enormous benefits against the existential challenges that quantum computing will inevitably bring.

The quantum leap of 2024: From physical qubits to global collaborations

Yuval Boger, CMO at QuEra Computing, predicts that quantum computing will see huge changes in 2024.

“One of the most significant is the transition from the era of physical qubits to the era of error-corrected logical qubits, which represents a leap towards more stable and reliable quantum computations.”

Boger also believes this will coincide with the increasing integration of quantum processors into high performance computing (HPC) centers, creating a hybrid computing landscape that leverages the unique capabilities of both classical and quantum computers.

“At the same time, European countries will open their national quantum programs to US providers. Behind this collaborative attitude is the recognition that a global approach is necessary to stay at the forefront of quantum computing development.”

An example of this is the idea that “the best French quantum technology” is not necessarily synonymous with “the best quantum technology for France”. The same logic could easily be applied to other countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, Finland, etc. For these reasons alone, the year 2024 is likely to be extremely exciting for the future of quantum computing.

Conclusion

In 2024, quantum computing could soon bring about a change that will affect us all. Imagine faster drug discoveries or unbreakable passwords – that’s the bright side. But there is a downside: current online security could be easily breached, and the technology is immature, often expensive and difficult to use.

As we move from the old world of computing into this exciting but unpredictable quantum era, corporate and government leaders must be both careful and smart. You must embrace the giant leaps forward and prepare for the potential pitfalls. Put simply, quantum computing offers a world of extraordinary possibilities, but we must learn to use them wisely.

FAQs

What are the fundamentals of quantum computing that I need to understand?

Traditional classical computers operate on binary bits, which can exist as either 0 or 1. They process information sequentially. The incredible advances we have witnessed in various areas are largely due to this classical data processing paradigm. However, when it comes to solving inherent quantum problems – such as For example, the development of drugs or complex simulations, classical computing is inadequate. Tony Uttley, President & Chief Operating Officer of Quantinuum, calls this inadequacy the problem that is becoming “unsolvable.”

Are quantum computers just super-fast computers?

Quantum computers not only speed up calculations, they also revolutionize the way calculations are carried out. They use quantum bits, or qubits, that can exist in multiple states at the same time thanks to the concept of “superposition.” Essentially, a single qubit can be a 0 and a 1 at the same time.

What are the three essential features of quantum computing?

The three superpowers of quantum computing:

  1. Superposition: As previously mentioned, superposition allows qubits to exist in multiple states at the same time, exponentially increasing the computing power of the quantum machine.
  2. Entanglement: This is a quantum phenomenon in which the state of one qubit becomes linked to that of another, even over large distances. This entanglement makes it possible to process complex operations involving multiple qubits and variables in a fundamentally different way than in classical computing.
  3. Interference: In a well-designed quantum calculation, incorrect answers can cancel each other out through interference, leaving only the correct solution. This is a crucial feature for problems where identifying the correct answer among many possibilities is like looking for a needle in a haystack.

Is quantum computing the future of data processing?

The jury is still out, but if we can break the traditional binary concept of computing and overcome the Von Neumann bottleneck, the way our computers work will be a very different, accelerated experience.

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